I love the Oscars. Rich undeserving assholes jacking each other off yeah. But if you see all the movies its a must. Even the middle when the 5 unknowns on stage for Best Animated Short carry on because they know their audience of 50 will grown tenfold overnight, its interesting.
Most of the categories are meaningless to 99% of watchers. And they really are. But if the Obamas win for American Factory in the Documentary Category it will drive the Racist from Queens crazy. And for that, the middle is meaningful.
Best Original Screenplay
1) Knives Out
2) Marriage Story
3) 1917
4) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5) Parasite
Who will win:
Parasite
It will win because not only is it very original, its Korean and you have to read. And Hollywood wants diversity though they disprove that want every year. Parasite was packed when I saw it. But I have to admit it didnt grab me like I wanted it to. High expectations are not good.
Who Should Win
I found Once Upon a Time in Hollywood fascinating. This may be due to my age and nostalgia for 1969 when I had nothing but time and dreams. And my grisly fascination with the Manson Family. I actually watched Aquarius FFS.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1) The Irishman
2) Jo Jo Rabbit
3) Joker
4) Little Women
5) Two Popes
What Will Win
Jo Jo Rabbit
I didnt think I'd like this satire on Nazis and Hitler. I dont find Hitler all that funny. Low Expectations I guess. I loved this movie and haven't laughed like I did during this movie in a while. Its original, its funny and its sad.
What Should Win
Jo Jo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actor
1) Tom Hanks
2) Anthony Hopkins
3) Al Pacino
4) Joe Pesci
5) Brad Pitt
Who Will Win
Brad Pitt
Brad Pitt is the only one of these greats who has no Oscars for acting. His turn as Cliff Booth was a revelation. As great as DiCaprio is, Pitt dominated the screen. When I saw Ad Astra I out loud said if brad Pitt doesnt get an Oscar for his 2019 there is no justice. His lifetime resume is really accomplished. Look it up sometime.
Who Should Win
Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress
1) Kathy Bates
2) Laura Dern
3) Scarlett Johanssen
4) Florence Pugh
5) Margot Robbie
Who Will Win
Laura Dern
a Lifetime Achievement award for an actor who serves as glue for virtually everything she is in. Big Little Lies, Little Women, and Marriage Story, The women can act, soft and subdued in Little Women or a raving lunatic in Big Little Lies. She is deserving AF.
Who Should Win
Laura Dern
Best Actor
1) Antonio Banderas
2) Leonardo DiCaprio
3) Adam Driver
4) Joaquin Phoenix
5) Jonathan Pryce
Who Will Win
Joaquin Phoenix
If you've seen Joker you know why. Again, this guys life work is both weird and solid. His turn as Joker is a masterful work of art. A mental illness portrayed like a man who knows what that entails. This is a lock.
Who Should Win
Joaquin Phoenix-- cant wait for the speech
Best Actress
1) Cynthia Erivo
2) Scarlett Johansson
3) Saoirse Ronan
4) Charlize Theron
5) Renee Zellweger
Who Will Win
Renee Zellweger
Her portrayal of Judy Garland was solid. She captured the sadness and desperation. She was good. But the movie itself was not.
Who Should Win
Saoirse Ronan
Because she should win every time. Millineals , this is your Meryl Streep. Get used to loving her for the next 40 years as I have loved Meryl since the day I first saw her in Julia and the TV series Holocaust. Ronan dominates the screen like no other current young actress. Since we first saw her at 10 in Atonement, through her kicking ass in Hanna, through the brilliant Brooklyn and Little Women, she will win Oscars. Just not now.
Best Director
1) Martin Scorcese--Irishman
2) Todd Phillips-- Joker
3) Sam Mendes-- 1917
4) Quentin Tarantino- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5) Bong Jong-hoo--Parasite
Who Will Win
Bong Jong-hoo
Again, Parasite is original, interesting and weird and because its all of those, it deserves something beyond screenplay. This is where it will win. Its no Farewell (the best foreign film of the year) but its in a class of its own.
Who Should Win
Sam Mendes
1917 is directed by someone who takes chances. Its basically a one shot movie. Far beyond the fascination of Joe Wrights Dunkirk sequence in Atonement, to do a one shot for an entire 2 hour movie is a risk. And it works. For that Mendes deserves this award
Best Picture
1) Ford V Ferrari
this was a well acted movie, with a good story and exciting car race scenes. Its entertaining and thats about it
2) The Irishman
3 1/2 hours in the front row of a mini theater. The movie itself is Scorcese at his best. With his chosen few, the story works, its never boring and in another year it would win. But its not that year.
3) JoJo Rabbit
If you have any sense of history, see it. If you like British humour, see it.
4) Joker
The fascinating descent of a man from depression to full blown violet mental illness. I loved this film. Again in another year, it wins
5) Little Women
Its a damned simplestory. No untoward events. No surprises. As PG a movie as Ive ever seen. Thats not a bad thing
6) Marriage Story
I admit I havent watched it because I dont like Noah Baumbach movies.
7) 1917
I saw it in IMAX. That wasnt necessary because this movie would be worthy on a regular screen. The one shot WWI story which rivals Gallipoli in its story is the best war movie since Dunkirk, or perhaps Saving Private Ryan. All of it is here. Brutality, stupidity, fear, and bravery.
8) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
I am not a fan of Quentin Tarantino. I keep saying that yet every film he makes I go ok I hate him but that was good. This one is great. Despite the rewrite of history which is totally understandable, the ranch scene is the best scene of the year. And spoiler alert, nothing happens. Thats talented directing.
9) Parasite
The trendy pick, Again its fine but nothing groundbreaking.
What Will Win
1917
What Should Win
Jo Jo Rabbit
from beginning to end. Taika Watitis Nazi satire covers it all. A little German boy, JoJo Betzler, brainwashed with Nazi propaganda, is in the Boy Scouts, aka the Hitler Youth, in the waning days of WWII. His mom is a secret freedom fighter hiding a Jewish girl in the walls. The little boys imaginary friend is Hitler himself. As he gets to know the Jewish girl in the wall, the Nazi in him fades.
To make sure we understand the seriousness of Hitlers Germany, Jo Jo Betzlers life changes in a way you dont see coming. Its brutal to see. Mentally. Oh yeah, its Nazi Germany you think. Not all that funny.
Jo Jo Rabbit wont win, but it should.
Other movies that got nuthin in 2019 that I liked
Rocketman-
John Wick 3- the horse scene- wow
Blinded By The Light which made me cheer
Yesterday--which made me cry
Us--I hate horror movies but I really liked this one
Dumbo--sorry but it worked for me
Brightburn--what if Superman broke bad
Ma--Octavia Spencer is crazy-who could resist?
Peanut Butter Falcon--a road story-watch it
Terminator- Linda Hamilton is great
Knives Out--as enjoyable a 2 hours as Ive spent at the movies
Dr Sleep--blasphemy but I liked it better than The Shining
The Farewell-arguably the best movie of the year. Awkwafina is a fuckin star and should get an Oscar.
The WORST
Midsommar--This piece of celluloid shit couldn't end fast enough. In fact, Florence Pugh may take years to get off my personal shit list
But I'd sit thru Midsommar ten times in a row before I'd spend one more minute watching the following disaster.
Uncut Gems is the absolute worst. Oh I know Adam Sandler and his distracting teeth are the best thing ever. No. This despicable movie is so depraved, so unworthy of 1 minute of your time, I cannot believe I saw it and thought it would be good. Ugly, sickening, and just plain amoral, this fuckin thing cant hit the $5 bin at Wal Mart fast enough.
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